A new projection from NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund sees the Chicago Bears making the playoffs in 2025.
The Bears have not made the postseason since 2020. They have not won at least eight games since that season and have not been above .500 since the 2018 campaign. Frelund’s model forecasts the Bears to go “over” their projected 8.5 win total.
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Frelund’s projection comes in the wake of the NFL’s 2025 schedule release and amid a slew of offseason changes for the Bears. Most notably, the Bears hired Ben Johnson away from the NFC North rival Detroit Lions.
From a personnel standpoint, the Bears added multiple upgrades to their offensive line and bolstered the weaponry around second-year quarterback Caleb Williams.
Similar to last season, Frelund projects a fast start in 2025.
“My model projects the Bears to start out with a 4-3 record,” Frelund wrote on May 14. “They are fortunate that their four toughest non-divisional opponents are spread out: vs. Washington in Week 6 (on Monday Night Football), at Baltimore in Week 8, at Philadelphia in Week 13 (Black Friday) and at San Francisco in Week 17 (on Sunday Night Football).”
Frelund’s projection specifically sees the Bears making the postseason field by claiming one of the Wildcard spots in the NFC. The Bears’ last postseason appearance was also in the Wildcard.
They lost 21-9 to the New Orleans Saints, whose defensive coordinator, Dennis Allen, is now theirs in a bit of a full-circle moment.
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Chicago Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen speaks with general manager Ryan Poles as head coach Ben Johnson watches practice. Mandatory credit: Clocker Sports
Based solely on Frelund’s projections, the Bears will be within striking distance of the NFC North title. Frelund projects the Lions (10.5 wins) and Green Bay Packers (9.5 wins) to finish “under” their projected totals.
Both are still listed with higher projections than the Bears, with the Lions at 10 wins and the Packers at 9.
However, that margin is closer than initial projections.
The Bears were 3-7 in one-score games last season. That includes a five-game skid in such games before snapping it with a Week 18 win over the Packers. It would only take one or two games for the Bears to push for second in the NFC North and maybe even the crown.
Of course, crunching numbers is one thing, and the Bears have been offseason darlings for two years running. Notably, Frelund projected “under” 8.5 wins for the Bears in May 2024.
That rose slightly to a projected 8.6-win total and 10.5-win season by September.
