The 2026 NFL season could be more than just “big” for the Chicago Bears and, specifically, for quarterback Caleb Williams.
Williams–the Heisman-winning, polarizing former No. 1 overall pick–took a big star turn in 2025.
Heading into his third season, a benchmark often associated with breakout campaigns, the expectations are even higher for Williams. The Bears are coming off a playoff run, and their young QB is drawing (way too) early attention for Most Valuable Player.
Bears QB Caleb Williams Getting Attention From Bettors
Caleb Williams a Dark Horse MVP Candidate
Fox Sports noted that Williams is a “nightmare for sportsbooks.” They cited Williams’ leap in his second season, which was Year 1 under Bears head coach Ben Johnson. The dynamic passer showcased his clutch playmaking ability with six game-winning drives, the second-most in the NFL.
Head into Year 3, Williams and the Bears will face a tougher schedule than the last-place slate they endured in 2026. That, presumably, means tougher opponents.
And still, Williams has been one of the favorite bets by the public to win MVP in 2026.
“According to BetMGM NFL insights, Williams has emerged as the biggest liability in the MVP market, drawing 11.8% of all tickets and 13.5% of the total handle,” Fox Sports wrote in an article on May 4.
“The former Heisman Trophy winner currently sits at +1400, tied with reigning MVP Matthew Stafford for the eighth-best odds. He still trails a loaded group at the top, including Josh Allen (+550), Lamar Jackson (+650) and Patrick Mahomes (+1000), along with Justin Herbert (+1000), Joe Burrow (+1000), Drake Maye (+1100) and Dak Prescott (+1300).”
“Despite the public heavily backing Williams, history tells a different story, considering no quarterback has ever won MVP in their third NFL season,” Fox Sports wrote.
The Bears have also not won double-digit games in back-to-back seasons since 2005-2006.
They went to the Super Bowl in the latter season. That happening again would have no bearing on Williams potentially winning MVP. It would certainly be the preferred outcome for him and the Bears.
Williams has since slipped to +1600, just behind Stafford and Trevor Lawrence, another former No. 1 overall pick, and tied with Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers.
Walter Payton (1977) is the only Bears player to ever win the award.
Caleb Williams Faces Historic Hurdles
Fox Sports’ note about third-year QBs not winning MVP is but one bout with history that Williams and Co. are navigating ahead of the 2026 season.
The Bears are also facing regression thanks to their schedule and turnover variance.
Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis projected the Bears, who are going from the ninth-easiest schedule in 2025 to the sixth-toughest projected slate in 2026, would win nine games (9.5, to be exact) this coming season.
One important note: Sharp noted in September 2025 that the Bears were projected to have the toughest slate from Weeks 12 through 18.
The Bears went 4-3 during that stretch, including a 1-2 mark on the road.
Five of those contests were decided by one score. Williams and the Bears were 2-3 in those outings. The Bears hope that shoring up the defense by revamping their linebacker and safety groups will help. They are also getting healthy at cornerback, defensive end, and LB.
The changes may help. However, they could also require fewer outlandish plays and less gaudy stats for Williams. He would still need to lead the Bears to victory above all else.
Caleb Williams’ Magic Number: 12
In the end, it could once again be up to Williams to put the team on his back when it matters most for the Bears to be a better team in 2026 than they were in 2025. There is also a possibility that they are a better overall team but post fewer regular-season wins, thanks to their strength of schedule.
John Elway (1987) had the fewest wins in any MVP season with eight, per Statmuse.
There has only been one other MVP without double-digit victories. That was Johnny Unitas in 1959. Moreover, no NFL MVPs have won fewer than 12 games since Matt Ryan in 2016. There was a 13-year drought (Steve McNair, 2003) before that.
The Bears’ history makes taking the over on their projected win total and Williams winning the MVP risky propositions.
The Ben Johnson-Caleb Williams combination is just as inspiring, though.
