The Chicago Bears are trying to replicate their success from last season and, what’s more, go even further in 2026. Not everyone is convinced by what the Bears did last season, their first under head coach Ben Johnson, though, or that something similar will happen in Year 2.
Johnson developed a strong rapport with Bears quarterback Caleb Williams. However, the third-year QB is also under the microscope after a polarizing second season.
The silver lining is that the Bears proved the doubters wrong just last season.
Bears Get Updated Outlook After Offseason Roster Changes
Projection Model Calls for Bears’ Regression
The Athletic’s Austin Mock bemoaned the sum of the Bears’ parts and their recent track record of success. Mock’s model projected the Bears would beat an average NFL roster by 0.5 points per game, the seventh-best mark in the NFC and 17th in the league.
The Bears were third in the NFC North, ahead of only the Minnesota Vikings in the projection.
“The Bears’ magical run last season was a bit of fool’s gold, but I still might be higher than most on Caleb Williams’ fit in Ben Johnson’s offense. However, Williams needs to find more down-to-down consistency. Colston Loveland’s emergence should help on that front, but Chicago’s running backs and wide receivers are somewhat unproven. The offensive line should be solid, so it’s up to Williams and his receivers to move forward,” Mock wrote on May 8.
“On the other side of the ball, it’s all bad. The defensive line, the secondary — they all grade out poorly in my model.”
The Bears revamped several position groups this offseason, including adding Coby Bryant and Dillon Thieneman to replace Jaquan Brisker and Kevin Byard at safety. They also signed Devin Bush to replace Tremaine Edmunds at linebacker.
The Bears signed Neville Gallimore and Kentavius Street at defensive tackle.
They did not add anyone at EDGE, banking on internal developments. They are counting on internal candidates to replace DJ Moore, whom they traded.
Bears Beat Dour Outlook in 2025
Notably, Mock’s model projected Johnson, Williams, and the Bears would be the 27th-best team in the league ahead of the 2025 season.
“This is probably lower than most Bears fans expected to find their team. Why are they all the way down here? Let’s just say quarterback Caleb Williams has a lot to prove his sophomore season,” Mock said at the time.
“If they get a jump in production from second-year wide receiver Rome Odunze, that will really help flip the script for this offense. New coach Ben Johnson should get more out of this group than the last regime did. On defense, I’m still concerned with the line, as it’s projected in the bottom half of the league.”
The Bears’ offense ranked sixth overall in 2025, and they were 15th in average margin of victory, per Team Rankings.
They were seventh in the NFC, ahead of only the Minnesota Vikings in their division. Mock’s concerns regarding the Bears’ defensive line proved valid, and they came before injuries ravaged the unit.
That could be cause for concern for the Bears as they run back the same personnel in hopes of achieving greater success this coming season. Especially when those hopes are rooted in improved health and not players bouncing back from down seasons statistically.
Bears Confident Heading Into Year 2 Under Ben Johnson
The Bears went 11-6 in 2025. They did that with Williams posting one of the lowest completion percentages among qualifiers in the NFL. Their defense ranked 29th due to a mix of injuries, a deficient pass rush, and a general lack of team speed.
However, the Bears feel that their moves and better health will impact their pass rush and coverage (from their corners) in a positive way.
Williams has been candid about improving his efficiency, looking to hit more easy completions.
They will face a more difficult schedule in 2026. There are also still questions about left tackle amid Ozzy Trapilo’s recovery from a ruptured patellar tendon that figures to sideline him for the duration of the season and has put his future beyond that in question.
But there is also the element of familiarity that was not present last season. The Bears are also counting on that offsetting some of the new challenges they will face in 2026.
