Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams has completed 62.3% of his passes for 927 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions through four games this season. He has taken 7 sacks in that span, but Williams’ performance to this point offers plenty to be encouraged about.
A new chart shows how proficient the Bears, and by extension, Williams, have been in one of the most critical in-game situations, third downs.
It is an area that has proven problematic in years past, but the tide appears to be turning.
Bears QB Caleb Williams Money Downs Lead News Roundup
Caleb Williams Good When Bears Need it Most
Williams has fallen short of Bears head coach Ben Johnson’s goal of 70% completion thus far. Reaching it in Year 1 together was likely always an unlikely proposition, though.
Still, when the Bears have needed it, Williams has come through.
“Bears have the NFL’s fourth-best 3rd down conversion rate despite having the second-longest average distance for a 1st down on 3rd downs (a Caleb Williams chart),” Fantasy Life’s Ian Hartitz posted on X on October 2.
Williams has completed 64.8% of his throws for 308 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, and a 106.5 passer rating on third downs this season, per Pro Football Reference.
The only down on which he has been better is first (68%, 392-4-0, 118.1).
Williams has been at the league average on first downs in terms of his completion percentage. He has been well above that on third downs. There remains a lot to unpack about Williams’ numbers, though.
He is well below league average on second downs (67.3% for the NFL, 53.8% for Williams) and fourth downs (59.3% NFL, 50% Williams).
Williams has also built a cushion on his efficiency with screen passes.
The No. 1 overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, Williams has completed 81.3% of those throws and 59.6% on all others, per Pro Football Focus. Additionally, Williams’ efficiency dips significantly when he is blitzed or otherwise under duress. That is common for QBs old and young, though.
The obvious answer is for the Bears to protect their franchise passer better, but they already invested heavily in their front five this past offseason.
Notably, third downs are the only ones Williams has improved in from Year 1 to Year 2 *so far.*
Bears Bye Week Wishlist
The Bears enter the Week 5 bye ranked 12th in scoring offensively and 19th overall. They rank 25th and 27th, respectively, on defense. Injuries can be blamed for some of their defensive shortcomings.
Johnson expressed optimism that the bye would allow some of their walking wounded, perhaps like cornerback Kyler Gordon and linebacker T.J. Edwards, to get back on the field.
On offense, though, they only recently began experiencing injury woes.
The Bears’ issues are two-fold on this front. They will be hard-pressed to find any difference-makers at positions of need in free agency. The Bears could certainly go after names like running back Zack Moss or defensive tackle Christian Wilkins.
However, in addition to the crop of options dropping in potential impact, the Bears are heading for a cap crunch, which could complicate matters for any players looking for more security.
According to Over The Cap, the Bears have $8.2 million in space as of October 2.
The same argument applies, and arguably even more so, to any worthwhile trade target, with the deadline one month away between Week 9 and 10. It is an area the Bears have had mixed results in over the years, including under current general manager Ryan Poles.
Realistically, the Bears can only hope their presumed offensive line changes result in cleaner pockets for Williams and more movement in the ground game.
However, they are tied for the ninth-most rushing yards before contact per attempt.
The Bears have the second-fewest yards after contact, suggesting breaking tackles is an issue, a notion their 27th-ranked broken tackle rate confirms. At the same time, they rank 14th in pressure rate but have just 5 sacks to show for it.
These numbers confirm the eye test. The Bears lack physicality in the run game from the backfield and an impact player to disrupt opposing quarterbacks consistently.
Good luck finding either one in free agency or on the trade market at an affordable cost.
Bears Heading for Noteworthy Showdown
The Bears will return from their bye with an extremely significant game on the docket. It is a road date against the Washington Commanders. There will be no shortage of storylines, from Williams and Jayden Daniels, the No. 2 overall pick in 2024, to their last encounter.
The Bears’ 2024 campaign seemingly flipped on its ear during a Week 8 matchup, which also followed Chicago’s bye.
Then, a late defensive breakdown cost the Bears the comeback win.
Washington will wear their black uniforms for this game – and only this game – this season.
The Bears did not win another game until Week 18 against the Green Bay Packers. That stretch is why Johnson is in town. Week 6 offers an opportunity for him and Williams to stamp what has been brewing over the last two weeks.
The Bears entered the last meeting on a three-game winning streak, and they hope to exit this contest on one.
