Ben Johnson’s Chicago Bears will likely say it often during training camp, and it is not uncommon to hear teams defer to it when presented with similar information in different ways throughout the season.
That is their chances to win the division.
The Bears are the reigning champions, but the doubts about their offseason appear to have leaked into the newest projections from ESPN.
New Stats Gives Bears Low Odds to Win NFC North
EPNS Projection Gives Bears Additional Motivation
Despite how often teams speak on their lack of interest in what projections forecast for them, they invariably mention doubters during moments of triumph. The Bears have had those moments, and Johnson and Co. got another on Monday.
ESPN’s Kevin Seifert shared the “chance of winning the NFC North, per ESPN Analytics” in a post on X on July 20.
The Bears were third at 19%, with a double-digit-percentage margin between them and second.
That was the Green Bay Packers, who the Bears defeated in the NFC Wild Card Round and split their regular-season series with in 2025, at 33%. The Detroit Lions, who swept their former offensive coordinator, Johnson, and the Bears last season, led the way at 38%.
The Bears only bested the Minnesota Vikings, who brought up the rear at 10%.
Minnesota added two-time Pro Bowler and former Offensive Rookie of the Year Kyler Murray after going 8-9 with poor play at quarterback last season.
The Vikings got their first win of the season in Week 1 off the Bears on “Monday Night Football.”
Their seasons went in different directions from then on, but the fact remains that the Bears will not have an easy path to repeating as NFC North champions.
Bears Looking to Snap 20-Year Drought
Johnson and the Bears can put a fitting bow on a downtrodden period for the franchise. With another postseason berth in 2026, the Bears would snap their drought of back-to-back NFC North crowns, which last happened in 2005 and 2006.
The Lions won back-to-back division titles before the Bears took it in 2025.
The Packers won three straight from 2019 through 2022, with the Vikings the only NFC North member that failed to at least repeat over the last seven years.
Before last season, 2018 was the Bears’ most recent division title and just their third since the realignment in 2002. As Bears fans know, most of that space was dominated by the Packers, with the Vikings winning the division four times during that window.
That includes back-to-back wins in 2008 and 2009, as well as the 2017 season.
If anything, the odds for the division might need to skew a little closer, given how much of a threat each team has proven to be, even with the changes that have taken place all around.
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