Tag Archives: MVP

Week 11 Primetime Moneymakers: Like Looking Into a Mirror

After weeks of having at least one stinker on the primetime NFL slate, we finally get treated to great matchups across the board in Week 11. All six teams are in the playoff hunt and two of the games feature divisional opponents. We also have no fewer than four MVP candidates and a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. You could say it’s pretty loaded.

Week 10 was a rough one. We committed a cardinal sin in betting: betting with the heart and not with the mind (looking at you, Chicago Bears), resulting in an 0-3 week. It’s the first winless week of the year and it stings. The record now stands at 8-11. Yuck. It is what it is and we won’t be dissuaded. As usual, there’s money to be made and if anyone is going to make it, it might as well be us!

Primetime Moneymakers: Like Looking in a Mirror

Arizona Cardinals (6-3) at Seattle Seahawks (6-3)

Spread: Seahawks -3

O/U: 57.5

Arizona Cardinal’s (5-4 ATS) Kyler Murray Hail Mary’ed himself back into the MVP race with his late-game heroics in Week 10. A 43-yard heave found stud wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins in the end zone in the middle of three Buffalo Bills defenders. After starting the season 2-2, the Cardinals have won four of their last five to pull into a tie with their opponent in this very game. Arizona leads the league in total yards, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns. They’re also seventh in points per game. And they’re far from one-sided, ranking ninth in scoring defense and have allowed just 23 touchdowns, four off the league-lead.

Russell Wilson has seen his MVP stock dip in recent weeks. He threw 19 touchdowns to just three interceptions through the first five weeks. He’s thrown nine scores to seven picks and lost three fumbles in the four games since. The Seattle Seahawks (5-3 ATS) need Wilson to play perfectly because their defense is as porous as they come. Seattle ranks 32nd in total yards and passing yards allowed. They’re a respectable fourth against the run but are 28th in scoring defense. It’s why they’ve lost three of their last four after starting off 5-0. Letting Russ cook has led to them getting burned.

This is the matchup that started the recent woes for the Seahawks. Tyler Lockett was dominant and D.K. Metcalf famously hawked safety Budda Baker but the Cardinals won 37-34 in overtime.  A Wilson interception essentially sealed that one too. Arizona has won the last two meetings between these two squads after losing the previous three. These two teams are trending in different directions heading into this battle for a leg up in the chase for the NFC West crown. Ride the heater and take the Cardinals plus the points. Speaking of points, expect a lot of them. Arizona has allowed an average of 32.6 PPG over its last three contests while Seattle has allowed 32.7 in their last four.

 

Kansas City Chiefs (8-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (6-3)

Spread: Raiders +8

O/U: 56.5

Led by MVP-frontrunner Patrick Mahomes, the Kansas City Chiefs (6-3 ATS) sit just behind the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers for the best record in the NFL. The Chiefs are first in offense DVOA, per Football Outsiders, tied for first in points per game, and fifth in total yards. Mahomes is third in the NFL with 25 touchdown passes to just one interception. Kansas City may also get wide receiver Sammy Watkins back this week as well. He hasn’t played since Week 5 when these teams last met. They will be without tackle Mitchell Schwartz, however. Their defense is no slouch either. While they rank 14th in defense DVOA, they are sixth in scoring defense, allowing just over 20 PPG.

It’s been about as good of an inaugural season in Sin City as the Las Vegas Raiders (6-3 ATS) are off to their best start since 2016. They finished that season 12-4 but lost to the Houston Texans in the Wild Card round. Derek Carr was an MVP candidate that season but suffered a broken leg in Week 15. Flash forward and Carr is having the best statistical season of his career while the Raiders offense is eighth in scoring, ninth in DVOA, and 13th in total yards. Their defense is ungood so they rely on a run game ranked fifth in rushing attempts and touchdowns, and seventh in rushing yards to keep them looking average statistically.

Las Vegas pulled off the shocker last time these two met, walking out of] Kansas City with a 40-32 victory over the defending Super Bowl champs. The Raiders are 3-1 since that game and have averaged 34 PPG over their last two contests. Too bad for them they are facing an Andy Reid team. His record coming off of extra rest is the stuff of legend. Add in the extra incentive of revenge and this could be a recipe for disaster if, unlike last time, the Raiders fail to establish the run. Look for the Chiefs to be aggressive early to eliminate that threat and protect their 27th ranked (30th in DVOA) run defense. Take K.C. but just moneyline as the Las Vegas ground game could keep this one close. That also makes the under appealing.

Los Angeles Rams (6-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3)

Spread: Bucs -4

O/U: 48

It’s been a bit of a mixed bag for the Los Angeles Rams ( 5-4 ATS) of late. Despite coming off their bye week to beat the Seahawks, they’re just 2-2 in their last four games after starting the season 4-1 with road losses to the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins. Jared Goff is 12th in passing attempts and 11th in passing yards but has just 13 touchdowns (and six picks) to show for it. L.A. is eighth in rushing and their 14 rushing touchdowns rank second but they’re only 18th in scoring. The Rams defense is second in total yards, third against the pass, and fourth in stopping the run.

Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) are second in total DVOA while he leads the league in pass attempts and sits fourth in pass attempts. This is the Bucs best start since 2010 when they also started 7-3. They finished 10-6 that season but still missed the playoffs. That shouldn’t be an issue this year as they sit behind the 7-2 New Orleans Saints in the NFC South but Drew Brees just went on IR and Taysom Hill is starting his first-ever game in the NFL. The Bucs could easily find themselves in the catbird seat with a win. Tampa also boasts the number one defense in DVOA, though the unit has allowed 26 PPG over the last four games; nearly four points higher than their season average.

L.A. is looking for just its third win this season over a team with a winning record after beating the Chicago Bears a few weeks back in addition to the Seahawks last week. Tampa is still seeking its first. If we look at the season, all three of the Buccaneers losses have been against teams in the top-five in DVOA. Their only win against a team in the top half of the league in defense DVOA is against the Denver Broncos. The Rams are eighth. But Los Angeles is just 2-3 on the road this season while Tampa Bay’s lone loss at home was to the Saints. Both teams are just 2-2 ATS over their last four, so we revert back to home-field advantage (and Goff’s disadvantage). That makes the Bucs the preferred play and with these defenses, hit the under.

5 Storylines to Watch for the Return of the Premier League

It has been three months since the last match was played and even the most loyal of Premier League fans may have forgotten some of the main plot points of this season. Here are the top five reasons to watch the remaining fixtures of the 2019-2020 season.

5 Storylines to Watch When the Premier League Returns

1. Does the season finish?

While the first three weeks of action between clubs have been announced, there is no guarantee all 92 lingering matches will be played. Every indication is the players, owners and the fans desire a season completed with no asterisks. The first three weeks of action have been all but guaranteed, with dates, times, and venues all announced. After that, everything will have to be played by ear.

If players, managers, and training staff remain healthy the Premier League should wrap up without issue. It’s unknown the status of the remaining fixtures if there is a secondary spike in cases in the UK or worse infections happen to members of clubs. The worst-case scenarios must be playing out in everyone’s heads. Let’s hope this becomes a very under the radar story-line, one forgotten after a couple of weeks.

2. Liverpool Finally Receives Their Trophy

Despite nearly two full years of dominance, Liverpool still has one goal to check off their nearly immaculate squad resume. During the 2018-2019 campaign, they accrued 97 points suffering only one defeat to the eventual victors, Manchester City. Since that time Liverpool has shockingly upped its form, winning all but two games in this year’s elongated season. Their lead in the table is an awe-inspiring 25 points. For reference, Aston Villa is sitting in 19th place with 25 points total. In 29 matches Liverpool has allowed only 21 goals, thanks in large part to Virgil van Dijk’s presence and the native Brazilian Allison’s 10 clean sheets.

3. Who is the Last Team to Escape Relegation?

In most years with a runaway champion, the next most competitive race is the fight at the bottom. West Ham, Watford, and Bournemouth all sit at 27 points and are tied for the final relegation spot with Aston Villa and Brighton just above or below that mark. All teams will have to play with the utmost form to secure their position in next season’s premiership. Most matches will be featuring top-half opponents. Brighton has the inside track to escape, with only a minus eight-goal differential despite only winning six of their 29 matches.

4. Who Wins the EA Player of the Season?

The Premier League’s version of the MVP award is hotly contested this year. Scoring, as always, is valued very highly in England’s top football division. Jaimie Vardy, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Sergio Agüero, and Mohamed Salah round out the most likely strikers to win based on total goals scored. If the voters are split between the deep field of worthy forwards, it’s very likely a Liverpool player snatches up the award right under their noses. Virgil van Dijk is the most likely of the Reds to win from a dark horse position.

5. Can Sheffield United Qualify for the Champions League

Sheffield United has been playing professional football since 1892. They have only been in the Premier League for a total of four seasons, including this year. The Blades returned to the Premier League for the first time since 2007; eager to change their fortunes. Sheffield had unbelievable momentum before COVID forced lock-downs, winning three of their last four matches and drawing the other.

Their team has no true superstar, no player has more than five goals. They are captained by the veteran forward Billy Sharp, featuring a stout defense only allowing 25 goals. That’s less than a handful more than top squad Liverpool. The anchor of the Blades is keeper Dean Henderson. On loan from Manchester United, the 23-year-old is tied for second in the league with 10 clean sheets.

Sheffield is five points from the club’s first-ever Champions League appearance and only two away from the Europa League consolation prize. If Sheffield has any hope of securing international competition, Christopher John Wilder will have to manage the club through a difficult last 11 matches. Seven of the remaining fixtures are against opponents in the top half of the table.