College basketball has been anything but consistent in this 2019-2020 season. Early on, the teams ranked number one couldn’t hold their ranking for more than a week. Today, there are three top-25 matchups that should be basically wrapping up the regular-season conference title with a win and Vegas never makes it easy with their on the money lines. But, we don’t shy away from big-time games, we wager on them.
Top-25 CBB Game Picks
3 Kansas (23-3) at 1 Baylor (24-1)
Spread: Baylor -1.5
Time: 12:00 p.m ET
Kansas is looking to exact revenge at The Ferrell Center in Waco as Baylor has been the only team to knock off Kansas on their home floor and it wasn’t even close. Baylor dominated Kansas 67-55 back on January 11. But this has been a completely different Kansas team since then; rattling off 11 straight wins. Kansas has been averaging 73.8 ppg in February and is 6-0 in road conference games.
Baylor has been the most consistent team in college basketball this year and they’ve been one of the most profitable teams this year. Baylor comes in as the fourth-most profitable ATS at 16-6 according to The Action Network. This is setting up to be a great game with the top-ranked team at home against the third-ranked team that is the powerhouse of the Kansas Jayhawks.
The spread has been fluctuating since it opened up at -1.5 favoring the Bears at home and immediately was bet up to -2.5. The line has since been back down to -1.5 so significant money has been coming in on both sides. I’m looking at a total that has been bet down to 127.5 from 129.5 when betting opened. I would look to bet the over with the recent February scoring surge from Kansas; even up against the stifling Baylor defense.
The Pick: Over 127.5
14 Oregon (20-7) at 24 Arizona (19-7)
Spread: Arizona -4.5
Time: 9:00 p.m ET
The second of three top 25 college basketball matchups is in the PAC-12 as Oregon visits Arizona at McKale Center. Oregon has been awful on the road in conference games with just a 2-5 record. In fact, they haven’t won a road conference game since January 30th at Cal. I don’t trust the Ducks here at all.
Meanwhile, Arizona has been great at home in conference play with a 5-1 record and averaging just over 78 ppg in those six games. These two teams faced each other back on January 9 with Oregon needing overtime to squeak out a victory against the Wildcats at home. This time, Arizona returns the favor.
The Pick: Arizona -4.5
2 Gonzaga (27-1) at 23 BYU (22-7)
Spread: Gonzaga -4.5
Time: 10:00 pm ET
Gonzaga is one of those teams where handicappers always try to find a game on their schedule where they are most susceptible to losing. That’s because year in and year out they are the standard in college basketball. This is the spot where most people have them losing and I just don’t see it.
Last Thursday they had their classic trap game at home against San Francisco and it was living up to its title in the first half as the Don’s were up 31-22 in Spokane. Only for Gonzaga to outscore San Fran 49-23 in the second half and win by 17 which ended up being an all-time bad beat with Gonzaga being favored by 16.5 points and covering on a last-second three.
Gonzaga is almost never a small favorite, they typically are a double-digit favorite which is why I tend to stay away from their games. The last time the Zags were this small of a favorite was on February 8 (-5) at St. Mary’s and ended up winning by 30 points. Both teams can really light up the scoreboard so I’m leaning towards the over. But, what I’m most confident in this game is the Bulldogs covering on the road.
The Pick: Gonzaga -4.5