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Triple Zeros – Bearing Down

Triple Zeros

Bearing Down

Watching the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Denver Broncos while recording this episode of Triple Zeros, the Chiefs have one thing other teams simply do not: Patrick Mahomes. Antonio Brown made quite the exit from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sideline against the New York Jets. But after he threw Tom Brady under the bus, he better hope he’s right about Bruce Arians and the Bucs treatment of his ankle injury. Do the Cincinnati Bengals run the AFC North now? Having Joe Burrow under center sure helps. The Las Vegas Raiders should give Rich Bisaccia a legitimate shot at the head coaching job. And Jim Harbaugh could still come to Chicago if the Bears give Ryan Pace the proper role with his anticipated new title. Plus, which division leaders can we trust heading into the NFL Playoffs next week?

On the NBA side, Klay Thompson announces his return this Sunday when the Golden State Warriors take on the Cleveland Cavaliers while there is a chance the Los Angeles Clippers get Kawhi Leonard back this season too. Meanwhile, finally healthy and playing well, DeMarcus Cousins got cut by the Milwaukee Bucks in a move intended to maintain roster flexibility (he’s since signed with the Denver Nuggets). The Chicago Bulls are getting All-Star love while the Atlanta Hawks got some tough love from their general manager.

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Finding Homes for the Best Remaining NFL Free Agents

The big whirlwind that was free agency in the NFL has slowed but there are still quality free agents remaining on the market. And these are contributors, not guys just hanging on. So let’s do them, and the franchises we place them with a solid and find them some new homes. Heck, some might even rejuvenate their careers in their new digs.

Remaining NFL Free Agents Can Be Big Pieces for New Teams

Alex Smith – QB

2020 Stats: 5-1 record, 66.7% cmp, 1582 yds, 6 TD:8 INT

That Alex Smith was even able to take the field in 2020 is nothing short of remarkable. After nearly losing his leg to an infection following a gruesome break, Smith missed the entire 2019 season rehabbing. He was never supposed to see the field for Washington but ended up as their best quarterback when all was said and done.

Outlook: Soon to be 37, Smith’s day’s as a starter are long gone, or at least they should be. He’s shown he can still play but there will always be that specter of re-injury; even if Smith isn’t the fearful one. His ideal situation would be backing up one of the top incoming rookies. Even for a young quarterback such as Drew Lock in Denver.

Next Option: Matt Barkley

James Conner – RB

2020 Stats: 169 ru., 721 yds (4.3 YPC), 6 TDs

James Conner entered the league amid much fanfare due to overcoming his battle with cancer. But multiple factors, including the offensive line and scheme, have limited his effectiveness. Not the least of which is health. Conner has missed 15 starts in three seasons as RB1. Oddly, even as Ben Roethlisberger’s mobility deteriorates, Conner’s receiving work has dwindled.

Outlook: It’s a hard-knock life for running backs in the NFL. Conner would have a hard time finding big money on the open market coming off of a good year. Now he will be looking at a complementary backup role. A team like the Arizona Cardinals could use him for short-yardage, goal line, and change-of-pace duties. A return to the Steelers is also a strong possibility.

Next Option: Todd Gurley

Antonio Brown – WR

2020 Stats:45 rec,  483 yds, 2 TDs

Was 2020 enough for Antonio Brown to get back in everyone’s good graces? He caught 45 balls for 483 yards and four touchdowns in eight games (four starts). He added another eight catches, 81 yards, and two scores in the postseason. It was modest production from a once-giant in the game. But he was a functioning member of a championship team. That has to count for something, right?

Outlook: Any contender, provided they have a strong locker room, should look into bringing in Brown after what he did with little time around the Bucs organization. The Baltimore Ravens have a culture strong enough to overcome Brown. Plus there would be the added benefit of playing with his cousin, Marquise Brown. Reports are he and Tamp have mutual interest but the money isn’t close.

Next Option: Golden Tate

Jesse James

2020 Stats: 14 rec, 129 yds, 2 TDs

Jesse James’ stats won’t wow you but no one on the free-agent tight end market is all that exciting. James has two things going for him that most on the list don’t. First, he’ll be just 27 when the season starts. He also played in all 16 games last season. Oh, and he’s 6-foot-7. You can’t teach that.

Outlook: Again, no one in this group is going anywhere to be a “weapon” but James’ profile does fit that of a red zone threat. That wasn’t on full display in Detroit behind T.J. Hockenson but could be elsewhere. Most teams could use a tight end with his height for depth and the scoring area. A team like the Seattle Seahawks, where Russell Wilson makes good use of the position, would make good use of him.

Next Option: Tyler Eifert

Eric Fisher – OT

Reports are that Eric Fisher could be back on the field by mid-August. If true, he’s easily the top offensive lineman on the market. He received an 80.0 grade from Pro Football Focus. He’s also been durable outside of this past post-season and 2018 when he missed half the year. You need to look no further than Super Bowl LV to see the impact of Fisher’s absence.

Outlook: This is easy because several teams could use the services of a Super Bowl-winning, franchise left tackle. But the Los Angeles Chargers stand out from the rest. They have a franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert and have already begun building the blocking in front of him. But they have a gaping hole at left tackle. If the medicals check out, Fisher could stay in the same division.

Next Option: Ricky Wagner

Trai Turner – OG

The Chargers cut Trai Turner in a cap-saving move. Last season, the five-time Pro Bowler missed out on the honor for the first time since he was a rookie. He only appeared in nine games as he dealt with a nagging groin injury. But this decision looms large as he was easily their best lineman and they have holes elsewhere.

Outlook: Bengals fans are already making a push for Turner to keep interior pass rushers out of Joe Burrow’s lap. Cincy reportedly has yet to reach out but that is likely just a formality as most of the next wave of deals won’t take place until after the draft. When the time comes, though, Turner donning the stripes would be a good look.

Next Option: Nick Easton

Austin Reiter – C

Another victim of the Chiefs revamping their offensive line, Austin Reiter has the distinction of being currently healthy. That’s something his former linemates who are also looking for work cannot boast. He graded out decent enough from PFF but most will likely remember Patrick Mahomes running for his life in the Super Bowl more than anything.

Outlook: Kansas City has already replaced Reiter but the Steelers and Dolphins both had their centers, twins Mike and Maurkice Pouncey, retire this offseason. Reiter could land with either the Pittsburgh Steelers or Miami Dolphins and be a stabilizing force in the anchor spot.

Next Option: Tyler Shatley

Justin Houston – EDGE

2020 Stats: 25 tackles, 8 sacks, 25 pressures

Yes, Justin Houston will be 33 by the time Super Bowl LVI is played. But it’s also true that the former Indianapolis Colts pass rusher had eight sacks last season; eight more than the next highest ranked free agent. Yes, you read that right. It’s impossible to call Houston over the hill when he’s outperforming guys up to four years younger than him.

Outlook: The Colts are interested in bringing him back. But they will likely have competition for his services. He could land back in the AFC West with the Chargers who are looking for a replacement for Melvin Ingram who profiles similarly to Houston.

Next Option: Jadeveon Clowney

Kwon Alexander – LB

2020 Stats: 57 tackles (39 solo), 3 TFL, 1 sack, 2 FR

Yet another cap casualty, cutting ties with Kwon Alexander saved the Saints $13 million. Sure they just traded for him this past season, but it was for an expiring contract in Kiko Alonso and a conditional fifth-round pick. That’s a pittance in the grand scheme. Still, it can’t feel good to have to cut a productive player for cash reasons.

Outlook: Inside linebacker is in a funky place right now. No one wants to pay top dollar for an off-ball linebacker but ask any team without a certified tackling machine or cover linebacker and see what they say. Alonso can fill both roles. He just needs a home and the Washington Football Team can give it to him. Their leading tackler was Jonathan Bostic but he’ll be 30 by the time the season starts and a free agent after it ends.

Next Option: Avery Williamson

Steven Nelson – CB

2020 Stats: 48 tackles, 2 INTs, 9 PD, 58.2% completion allowed

There might be some more recognizable names than Steven Nelson on the free-agent cornerback market. But they are all older or less effective (and mostly both) than he was for the Pittsburgh Steelers last season. Remember, this is a defense that finished 2020 ranked third in yards allowed. Nelson’s only had three interceptions the past two years combined but he’s also allowed a sub-60 percent completion in his area the last three years.

Outlook: The Steelers saved $8 million moving on from Nelson but the move likely helped other teams more. Now, Nelson is free to sign with the team of his liking, and the franchise doesn’t have to fork over draft capital to acquire him or pay that exorbitant amount to keep him. The Arizona Cardinals (should) have entered the chat.

Next Option: Casey Hayward

Malik Hooker – S

2019 Stats: 51 tackles (30 solo), 2 INTs, 3 PD, 1 FR

Malik Hooker missed all but two games of the 2020 season with a torn Achilles. It’s just another in a long list of lower-body injuries the fifth-year man out of Ohio State has endured. The Colts declined his fifth-year option last May with his injury history in mind. But when healthy, Hooker provides a rare combination of range, ball skills, and tackling ability.

Outlook: If healthy (and that’s a big if) Hooker would be a great fit anywhere. But imagine he and Derwin James and the versatility they’d give rookie head coach Brandon Staley. Hooker would look good with the Tennessee Titans too. It would be a similar situation as the Chargers with he and Kevin Byard combining to be a menacing duo.

Next Option: Tre Boston

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Cam Newton to the New England Patriots is Perfect

It almost makes too much sense. Cam Newton, Superman, is a New England Patriot. And in the year 2020, this is exactly the kind of move we should have expected. Many did, and yet it still felt like such a longshot. Clash of cults of personality aside, there was always a strictly football-related reason for this to happen. The fact that the actual deal is good for both sides is just an added bonus.

New England Patriots Signing Cam Newton is Perfectly 2020

How Did We Get Here?

What an offseason it has been! We’ve seen a quarter of the league’s projected starters entering 2019 change teams, including a wild four-team swap with New England and 75% of the NFC South. Tom Brady joining the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was the shockwave of the off-season; if only slightly edging the Houston Texans swindling themselves out of DeAndre Hopkins.

Jameis Winston is now backing up Drew Brees in New Orleans and Teddy Bridgewater (Winston’s predecessor) will start in Carolina. Even Philip Rivers going to the Indianapolis Colts doesn’t compare.

Tampa Tommy is like the prodigal son going to the Darkside (which would have worked so much better had he joined the Las Vegas Raiders). Newton to the Pats is like, well T’Challa taking over for Steve Rogers. Yes, it’s on the nose, but it’s so very accurate. How else do you describe the expressive Newton heading to the most buttoned-up operation in the NFL?

What’s even better is it is two polarizing entities of opposite ends joining into one. The Patriots have been the bully on the block for much of the past 20 years. This, and a generous helping of sketchy deeds, has led to a buildup of resentment from those on the outside.

Newton, for all his charitable deeds, is more known for his scarves and attitude after losing Super Bowl 50.

Neither man is perfect. Brady was directly indicated in his fair share of the scandals during his time in New England. And, if we’re being honest, the worst Newton has done was his interaction with a female reporter a few years back. He laughed at the depth of her question and said it was “funny” a question like that came from a woman.

But on the football field, both of these men have set records.

Why It Will Work

Brady has the edge in accolades, sure. But even he has conceded it is at least equal parts situation as it is his given talent, effort, preparation, etc. Newton, if healthy, offers the total opposite. A supremely gifted athlete, he reached the edge of the mountain top without the level of coach and system he will have around him next year.

That isn’t a knock on what the Ron Rivera Panthers did either, they ran a system they felt gave them the best chance to win. The issue was they operated like Newton was a rookie for too long, not surrounding him with enough talent at receiver and/or a proper offensive line. His development seemed to stall as the Panthers found their formula.

One thing we know about the Patriots, they know the formula changes from year to year. No team has been better at adapting to their personnel.

Josh McDaniels is a very underrated part of why this will work. He was able to get seven wins out of a second-year Tim Tebow back in 2011. That was ten years ago. But Newton, a former MVP, is far and away a better passer than Tebow ever was.

People also forget the year Newton was having before he got injured in 2018. Carolina was 6-2 with Newton completing 67.3% of his passes for 1893 yards, 15 touchdowns, and four interceptions. He added another 342 yards and four scores on the ground. He over 68 percent of his passes in his remaining six games, but only threw nine touchdowns to nine picks and the Panthers went winless.

What’s The Problem?

That depends on what you thought of Brady last season. He started the season completing 64% of his passes for 2251 yards, 13 scores, and four interceptions over the first eight games. But he finished throwing for 1806 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 4 more picks while completing just 56.9% of his passes. The Patriots went 4-4 over those final eight.

Was that all Brady? He is, after all, in his 40s and has played over two and a half regular season’s worth of playoff games. It’s perfectly reasonable his abilities are in decline.

But New England lost Rob Gronkowski to retirement then lost Antonio Brown (one game) and Josh Gordon (six games) to personal issues. Julian Edelman was still around, but there aren’t many quarterbacks who can overcome that kind of talent drain before and during the season.

Newton’s health will be the biggest deterrent to any success. But he’s been out since September last year and has been seen working with Odell Beckham. Keeping him that way is paramount and dependant upon them either finding upgrades or guys like N’Keal Harry and free-agent addition Marquise Lee stepping up. Edelman and Mohamed Sanu will serve as the vets but the big hole is at tight end.

The offensive line is the bigger concern. Brady took 17 of his 27 sacks over the back half of the year. That line lost center Ted Karras and didn’t add anyone in free agency or the draft until the sixth round. They kept Joe Thuney, though.

The defense underwent a facelift but should be a smoother transition than anything the offense will go through. New England took defensive players with their first three picks and all are expected to contribute early. That’s good with the losses New England suffered at linebacker. Boasting one of the best secondaries in the NFL, though, they should be just fine.

Superman is a Patriot

Cam Newton has had to carry his offenses for much of his career, literally. In New England, he will get a chance to be a part of the machine. They will cater the offense to him week-to-week. His athleticism gives them an added dimension they didn’t have (or need) with Brady. He would also be the first non-Patriots draft pick to start for the team since Scott Secules in 1993.

Doubters will point to Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer and say Newton isn’t a lock to start. But as long as he’s healthy, neither the second-year Stidham nor the journeyman Hoyer is beating him out. The Patriots don’t need the publicity this brought (even with the penalties handed down) but Belichick would love the prestige winning with Newton would bring. We know what’s really on the line here.