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Rumors

Bears’ Key Offseason Addition Ranked ‘Most Overrated’ in NFL

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The Chicago Bears went to extensive lengths to revamp their roster on both sides of the ball But one of their biggest gets, linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, finds himself among some rather dubious company, ranked as the NFL’s “most overrated” linebacker.

Bears’ Tremaine Edmunds Ranked NFL’s ‘Most Overrated’ Linebacker

“When the Buffalo Bills drafted Tremaine Edmunds…the hope was that the young but wildly athletic Virginia Tech product would develop into one of the league’s best off-ball linebackers,” wrote Gary Davenport of Bleacher Report on June 2. “However…Edmunds just hasn’t been the sort of playmaker that [Roquan] Smith or a healthy [Shaquille] Leonard have been.”

Bears head coach Matt Eberflus is at least somewhat familiar with both Smith and Leonard having coached the latter from his rookie season through 2021 and being around Smith to start the 2022 campaign.

Smith was traded to the Baltimore Ravens at the deadline after a contract holdout in camp.

Edmunds’ 359 solo tackles since 2018 rank 10th in the NFL in that span. To Davenport’s point, however, Edmunds has never ranked higher than his 19th-placed finish in any single season in that window.

“Edmunds is a very good player being paid like he’s great,” writes Davenport. “But he hasn’t shown that greatness—not yet.”

The Bears inked Edmunds to a four-year, $72 million contract with $36.8 million guaranteed at signing ($50 million guaranteed total) to man the middle of their defense. For reference, that is the fifth-highest total contract value in the NFL among off-ball linebackers and jumps a spot to fourth in terms of annual value, per Spotrac.

Tremaine Edmunds Lack of Turnovers a Potential Concern

Of potential concern, and further to Davenport’s message, Edmunds has just five interceptions in his career and only two over the last two seasons. He has also forced just two fumbles – both of which came during his rookie season – and he has never recovered one.

All three linebackers entered the league in the 2018 NFL Draft. But Edmunds also trails both Leonard and Smith in sacks and turnovers.

Provided by Stathead.com
          Tack Def Def Fumb Fumb
Rk Player Age G Sk Comb Int PD FR FF
1 Tremaine Edmunds 20-24 74 6.5 565 5 35 0 2
2 Shaquille Leonard 23-27 61 15.0 549 12 31 7 17
3 Roquan Smith 21-25 78 18.5 693 8 23 1 1
Perhaps that can be explained by the Bills’ scheme and other pieces.
 
Plenty of turnovers come from the deflections and forced fumbles of others. The 6-foot-5 Edmunds has also flashed that playmaking ability with the Bears, albeit in OTAs.

Edmunds is also the youngest of the three, each of whom hit free agency in 2026.

Bears ‘Interested’ in FA Pass Rushers

A lot of what happens with Edmunds and at the second level of the defense in general next season will be dictated by the Bears’ defensive line. Chicago recorded a league-low 20 sacks on the season in 2022 and ranked 31st against the run. Adding Edmunds and fellow free agent addition T.J. Edwards at linebacker isn’t solving that alone.

The Bears have added to their defensive line, mostly with interior players both in free agency and through the draft.

While they have also added some hybrid pass rushers, they might not be content with that.

Matt Eberflus Sends Strong Message on Bears’ Roster

They are mostly limited to aging veterans and retreads for proven options in free agency, which has left them open to trade speculation. Whatever they do, it’s clear that the expectations – both on the outside and from within – are higher than they were last year which is a good thing.

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Rumors

Bears Urged to Take Proactive Stance With Cole Kmet

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The Chicago Bears’ aggressive offseason moves could put the squeeze on one of their incumbent players.

“[Tight end Cole] Kmet might be more valuable to another team,” argued Bleacher Report’s Alex Ballentine on May 31. “If someone is willing to pay up for him in the final year of his rookie contract, the Bears should be willing to listen.”

Bears ‘Should Be Willing to Listen’ to Trade Offers for Former Top Pick

Cole Kmet’s Production Could Suffer in Revamped Offense

Ballentine’s argument comes from several factors, most notably the addition of D.J. Moore to the wide receiver room that has Darnell Mooney coming back after ankle surgery. Chase Claypool is in Year 2 and will have a full offseason with the team. Even more directly, they added former Green Bay Packer Robert Tonyan at tight end.

There’s also the matter of Kmet’s production.

As the Bears’ passing game went into the tank last season, Kmet’s targets fell by nearly 30%. He still did a lot of damage through the air with seven touchdowns. That was tied for the third-most among tight ends.

The former second-round pick (No. 43 overall in 2020) was Chicago’s first selection in his class. He is heading into the final year of his contract. There was word of contract talks in the spring.

“Just little talks here and there,” Kmet said, per Alex Shapiro of NBC Chicago on March 9. “They’ve got a lot to get done, obviously with the draft, free agency, all those things. Really wouldn’t expect much to happen, maybe until summer, really until after free agency settles and the draft, so we’ll see where it goes.”

Kmet, 24, is one of two tight ends in Bears history to record at least 130 receptions and 1300 yards over the first 50 games of his career, per Stathead, joining Greg Olsen. Zooming out, only 56 other tight ends in NFL history have achieved that mark to start their careers.

Jaylon Johnson Will Be at OTAs ‘For Sure’

Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson appeared on Keyshawn, JWill, & Max on June 1 to talk about a variety of topics, including his charity work for his non-profit, Kevvy’s Vision Project, and other such acts.

He also shed some light on his absence from OTAs ahead of a pivotal contract season.

Johnson, 24, was selected seven picks after Kmet in the 2020 NFL Draft. This regime does not have any ties to him (or Kmet for that matter) beyond his injury-shortened 2022 campaign. He has one career interception and has logged just one more pass breakup over the last two seasons (16) as he had as a rookie in 2016.

But Johnson has also gotten a vote of confidence from the Bears’ greatest tormentor, Aaron Rodgers. The now-New York Jets passer called the corner a “premier player” after their matchup in December.

Johnson said that he will be at the next set of OTAs “for sure”.

For what it’s worth, he has a little added motivation to show up and show out with the team drafting another perimeter corner in Tyrique Stevenson and 2022 second-rounder and projected nickelback Kyler Gordon admitted that he misses playing on the outside.

The Bears’ next set of OTAs will take place from June 5 through June 8 with veteran minicamp slated to take place the following week at which point Johnson was already expected back.

Rumors

Bears Urged to Trade for ‘Stalwart’ D-Lineman With Ties to Coaching Staff

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The Chicago Bears underwent a major facelift on both sides of the ball this offseason but some holes remain. It can be tough to fill most needs in on summer, let alone all the needs Chicago had.

Still, with a couple of months to go until training camps open up around the NFL, there is time for more tweaks to what should already be a vastly-improved group over last year’s 3-13 squad, and they could land one who is familiar with head coach Matt Eberflus.

Defensive ‘Stalwart’ Floated as Potential Bears Trade Target

“The Bears spent a ton of money to get new blood at inside linebacker…But they can only do so much if they don’t have tackles in front of them who hold up at the point of attack and keep them clean,” wrote Alex Ballentine of Bleacher Report on May 31. “Making a trade for Grover Stewart would reunite the veteran with Eberflus while giving the Bears a reliable interior defender.”

Stewart, 29, spent four seasons under Eberflus in Indianapolis. He is heading into the final year of a three-year, $30.7 million contract and, as Ballentine notes, will be taking the field for a coaching staff with zero ties to him.

It is not as though he is a non-factor, however.

He is a stalwart against the run, racking up nine tackles for a loss and 70 combined tackles with the Colts last season,” Ballentine writes, adding Stewart “would offer some help in the pass rush department, too. Last season, he had four sacks and 14 pressures, per Sports Info Solutions.”

What’s more, the 6-foot-4, 315-pound Steward has appeared in every game in each of the last four seasons including starting all 50 games over the past three seasons. Neither of the Bears’ projected starters – Justin Jones and Andrew Billings – have shown that kind of durability, though each offers something different than what Stewart brings.

While he could slot in alongside either Billing or Jones on the interior, their presence is just one reason why the Bears might hold off on pursuing the soon-to-be free agent.

Bears Rookies Have Impressed

The other big reason the Bears might be hesitant to fork over draft capital for a player who will turn 30 years old early in the season – which is already against the ethos of general manager Ryan Poles – is the work they did this year in the 2023 NFL Draft.

A class that included three interior linemen – Gervon Dexter Sr., Zacch Pickens, and Travis Bell – has seen that trio generate plenty of buzz. First, it was with their personalities and anecdotes during the pre and post-draft processes. Now, the youngsters have gotten a chance to show what they can do on the football field, albeit in sweats without pads.

Of course, a Bears defense that ranked 27th in yards per carry and 32nd in rushing touchdowns allowed needs all the help it can get.

Bears Need More Help at EDGE than DT

This roster was bereft of talent last season. But, despite their actions in the draft and free agency, Jones was one of the unit’s few bright spots. It will be interesting to see if he has another level to his game with better pieces around him at almost every level.

The Bears have not, however, added anyone of significance at EDGE rusher, a bit of a concern with the defense generating just 20 sacks last season.

They do have incumbents Trevis Gipson and Domonique Robinson, both of whom have a lot to prove. And they added Rasheem Greene and DeMarcus Walker in free agency but both of them are more tweeners than pure pass rushers, though Walker did record 7.0 sacks last season for the Tennessee Titans and Green notched 6.5 sacks for the Houston Texans in 2021.

Rumors

Offseason Pickup Considered Bears’ ‘Best Kept Secret’ in 2023

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The Chicago Bears did a lot to overhaul their roster on both sides of the ball.

Key to that was adding offensive lineman Nate Davis to a much-maligned group from 2022. It contributed to a league-high 55 sacks for quarterback Justin Fields.

He’s now considered the team’s ‘best-kept secret’.

Nate Davis Considered Bears’ ‘Best Kept Secret’

“Playing in Tennessee last season, [Davis] finished as the 17th-ranked guard by [Pro Football Focus’s metrics,” writes Alex Ballentine of Bleacher Report naming each team’s ‘best-kept secret’ on March 21. “He’s been a consistent starter for some good offensive lines during his time in Tennessee. He’s the kind of underrated addition that raises the floor of the Bears offense.”

Chicago signed Davis to a three-year, $30 million contract with $19.2 million guaranteed after he helped block for two-time rushing champion Derrick Henry who tallied over 1500 yards on the ground last season.

And for a look at Davis in the run game, keep an eye on No. 64 in the clip below.

Adding Davis also allowed the Bears to slide third-year man Teven Jenkins over to the left side and move 2022 starting left guard Cody Whitehair in at center. In theory, one signing should strengthen three positions with rookie Darnell Wright – the No. 10 overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft – manning the right tackle position.

Bears Need 3rd-Year Leap From Justin Fields

Fields and the Bears boasted the NFL’s best rushing attack, racking up nearly 300 yards over the No. 2 team, the Baltimore Ravens.

The third-year quarterback led the charge with 1143 yards on the ground. But the Bears are hoping his retooled offensive line – plus some new weapons in D.J. Moore and Robert Tonyan – will see him take that next step as a passer.

Early indications have been positive.

Bears Coaches Deliver Encouraging Message About Justin Fields

And Fields is saying all of the right things.

“The guys who were in the offense last year are way more comfortable this year with the playbook,” Fields told Larry Mayer of ChicagoBears.com, “and focusing on the defense rather than just the little stuff with the offense because they know it, they know the foundation of it.”

Darnell Mooney ‘Disrespecting Everbody’ in ’23

One of Fields’ top weapons of 2022, wide receiver Darnell Mooney, did not finish the season, succumbing to an ankle injury that require surgery and cost him the final three weeks of the season. Heading into a contract year, Mooney says that he is no longer concerned with others’ opinions of him.

“Ball out. Dominate,” Mooney said on ‘The 33rd Team’ podcast on May 18. “I’m not really on the ‘respect my name’ anymore. I’m just disrespecting everybody now. Don’t really care about respect no more. Other than that, I just want to win. I don’t really care about anything else.”

Mooney is just one year removed from his first 1000-yard campaign.

If he can return to full health, he may be poised for a big year with Moore in tow to take away opposing defenses’ attention. At the same time, there are a lot more proven mouths to feed than there were at this time last season. Whatever happens, the Bears’ offense figures to be worlds better this coming season.

Rumors

2021 NFL Draft First-Round Mock 2.0

Just as the whirlwind of free agency had passed through, the 2021 NFL draft got a shake-up. The San Francisco 49ers traded three first-round picks and a third-rounder to the Miami Dolphins to go from 12th to third overall; the expectation clearly being they’re taking a quarterback. Miami then traded back into the top-10, moving the 12th, 123rd, and a 2022 first-round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles for the sixth and 156th picks this year.

Got all of that? Good. *Deep breath*

We also got word that the New England Patriots are planning to make a move for current 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo or one of the top rookies in the NFL Draft. The Atlanta Falcons are dealing with an aging Matt Ryan and the Carolina Panthers have made no secret about trying to upgrade from Teddy Bridgewater. Then there’s the Chicago Bears who need to do something.

A Major Shake-Up to the First Round of the 2021 NFL Draft

1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence

 (Original Selection – Trevor Lawrence)

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Well, the Jaguars are broke but the initial pick wasn’t. When you get the first-overall pick in the NFL Draft for the first time in your franchise’s history, you better not mess it up. No matter the small pockets of dissent, Trevor Lawrence is the consensus top passer in this class. Scenarios imagining them going another direction are fiction.

2. New York Jets – Zach Wilson

(Original Selection – Zach Wilson)

See: Trevor Lawrence. In all seriousness, the Jets were always going to be picking a quarterback in our eyes and Zach Wilson made the most sense. His stock rose all season while the other option for second-overall saw his fall during a difficult college season. Now it appears that it’s becoming more of a foregone conclusion, though.

3. San Francisco 49ers – Justin Fields

(Original Selection – Trey Lance)

 

We always had the 49ers, like the Jags and Jets before them, slated to take a quarterback. But the aggressive move up means they’re likely trying to capitalize on the “slide” of Justin Fields more than banking on a project from a small program. San Francisco better hope the recent history of trades up for quarterbacks doesn’t repeat itself.

4. Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Pitts

(Original Selection – Micah Parsons)

This is still where the draft could get most interesting. The Falcons could take their quarterback of the future as some major analysts predict. They could go for an impact defender. This was one of the worst defenses last season. But why not try to maximize Ryan now and set this offense up for the future too with a generational talent in Kyle Pitts?

5. Cincinnati Bengals – Ja’Marr Chase

(Original Selection – Rashawn Slater)

Look, what Baby wants, Baby gets. We initially had the Bengals slated to take an offensive lineman, but after reports came out that Joe Burrow is lobbying for the Bengals to take Ja’Marr Chase (who happens to be a former teammate) the Bengals should be happy to oblige. The signing of Riley Reiff makes this an acceptable decision, especially if they can trade down.

6. Miami Dolphins – Penei Sewell

(Original Selection – Penei Sewell)

No, Miami shouldn’t take another project QB. Miami picked up some capital by trading down but had to get back here to ensure they get Penei Sewell. He’s still the top tackle prospect with outstanding grades in a “down” season. Some might see them going for a playmaker here, but chances are they can still land that guy with the 18th pick. If they hold onto it that is.

7. Detroit Lions – Micah Parsons

(Original Selection – Kwity Paye)

Decisions decisions. The Lions are the first team to have to legitimately weigh pulling the trigger on a quarterback after trading Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff. It makes more sense to try and build the rest of this roster and the defense is still the neediest (though the offense is giving it a run for its money). Micah Parsons’s character worries are no match for Dan Campbell.

8. Carolina Panthers – Trey Lance

(Original Selection – Caleb Farley)

Not many teams have been as connected to the big named quarterbacks who were subject of speculation as the Panthers. Don’t expect them to stop trying on that front, necessarily. But if those guys ultimately do stay put, sitting Trey Lance behind Bridgewater for a year or two wouldn’t be the worst plan.

9. Denver Broncos – Christian Darrisaw

(Original Selection – Justin Fields)

When healthy, the Broncos have one of the better rosters in the NFL. They’re only missing steady quarterback play. Having missed out on Fields in this mock, they turn to bolster the protection around the current quarterback, Drew Lock. This could be where a team like the Chicago Bears gets antsy and moves up so as not to miss on the remaining “first-round” quarterback.

10. Dallas Cowboys – Patrick Surtai

(Original Selection – Patrick Surtain)

The pick stays the same after the Cowboys only move at cornerback was to re-sign Jourdan Lewis. Maybe they go with one of the other top corners. But Patrick Surtain has the kind of pedigree that should catch the eye of the decision-makers in Dallas. His tape certainly won’t hurt, either.

11. New York Giants – Rashawn Slater

(Original Selection – Christian Darrisaw)

The selection may change but the objective remains the same: protect the quarterback. Daniel Jones was sacked 45 times (4th) despite missing two games. Rashawn Slater is versatile so, with Nate Solder set to return next season, the Northwestern product could kick inside to guard; replacing the departed Kevin Zeitler.

12. Philadelphia Eagles – DeVonta Smith

(Original Selection DeVonta Smith)

Sometimes things just work out. When the Eagles traded down it was viewed as further evidence they were fully invested in Jalen Hurts as the starting quarterback. Then word broke they weren’t completely sold. With the way the draft has shaken out, the choice of taking the Heisman-winning DeVonta Smith should be an easy one. Why give up on Hurts before seeing what he can really do?

13. Los Angeles Chargers – Caleb Farley

(Original Selection – Zaven Collins)

This might be more of a value-pick than anything. But after losing 14-game starter Casey Hayward from what was a top-10 passing defense, it’s also a need. Caleb Farley would team with the returning Derwin James to give the Chargers a long, versatile secondary. We’re still in prime trade-up territory for some quarterback-thirsty team.

14. Minnesota Vikings – Alijah Vera-Tucker

(Original Selection – Alijah Vera-Tucker)

The Vikings needed line help before cutting Reiff. Their activity beyond that in free agency only bolstered this. They would be getting a versatile one in Alijah Vera-Tucker who spent most of his time in college on the outside.

15. New England Patriots – Mac Jones

(Original Selection – Kyle Pitts)

If reports are true that the Patriots plan on making a move for one of the top passers in the draft it would likely have to be Mac Jones. If so, Bill Belichick would be cracking the closest thing to a smile you’re going to get from him if this scenario plays out. This still feels like a bit of a smokescreen, though, and a trade down wouldn’t exactly shock anyone.

16. Arizona Cardinals – Jaycee Horn

(Original Pick – Travis Etienne)

After having some doubt whether another corner was worthy of going this high, Jaycee Horn erased all concerns. His 4.39 40-yard dash, 41.5-inch vertical, and 19 bench reps point to his pedigree. Yes, the Cardinals just signed Malcolm Butler. But it’s only a one-year deal. A pick of Horn is one with the long view in mind.

17. Las Vegas Raiders – Teven Jenkins

(Original Pick – Ja’Marr Chase)

The Raiders created the need for this pick when they traded away right tackle Trent Brown to the Patriots. Despite the re-signing and signing of Zay Jones and John Brown, respectively, the Raiders could still use another receiver and there is a big need for a linebacker. But protecting the quarterback is paramount in the NFL.

18. Miami Dolphins – Jaylen Waddle

(Original Pick – Terrance Marshall)

This would be an absolute steal for the Dolphins. Initially slated for the versatile Marshall, Jaylen Waddle is the dynamic presence this offense, and second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa needs. Following their earlier selection of Sewell, landing Waddle would be enough to earn this class an ‘A’. And no, Will Fuller’s signing shouldn’t keep them from making this pick.

19. Washington Football Team – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah

(Original Pick – Trevon Moehrig-Woodard)

A solid free-agent haul has left the Football Team feeling fine despite missing out on one of the top passers (barring a trade, of course). And while they still could use a safety or tackle here, but they instead opt for Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, a player who tallied 142 tackles, seven sacks, and five forced fumbles (with four recoveries) in two seasons at Notre Dame.

20. Chicago Bears – Kadarius Toney

(Original Pick – Mac Jones)

If the Bears are serious about Andy Dalton being QB1, then they need to put more weapons around him. Allen Robinson will be playing on the franchise tag, Darnell Mooney is just in his second year, and they already tried to trade Anthony Miller. Kadarius Toney had 10 touchdowns and nearly 100 yards last season for the Florida Gators. They should try to trade up though.

21. Indianapolis Colts – Kwity Paye

(Original Pick – Dillon Radunz)

The Colts signed Sam Tevi who started 14 games for the Chargers last season in free agency. That plus the shake of the board pushed EDGE to the top of their list of needs. There might be players with more pass-rushing juice, but Kwity Paye is the most complete EDGE defender on the board.

22. Tennessee Titans – Greg Newsome

(Original Pick – Joseph Ossai)

The addition of Bud Dupree influenced this change of heart. But not more than the losses of both Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler in free agency. Janoris Jenkins will be 33 early in the season and Kevin Johnson isn’t an answer, especially on a one-year deal. Greg Newsome is quickly rising up draft boards.

23. New York Jets – Zaven Collins

(Original Pick – Jaylen Waddle)

A productive free agency sees the Jets needs change for this pick. Corey Davis doesn’t preclude them from taking a receiver but they can certainly wait for one. Instead, new head coach Robert Saleh gets a versatile new toy for his defense. Zaven Collins, the Nagurski award winner from Tulsa, can play off-ball linebacker or rush the passer.

 

24. Pittsburgh Steelers – Najee Harris

(Original Pick – Liam Eichenberg)

With it looking like some quality tackles could be available in the second round, the Steelers opt to go a different route in an attempt to address their stagnant ground game. James Conner is a strong candidate to return but Pittsburgh has ranked 32nd, 29th, and 32nd with him as the primary back and he’s yet to play a full season.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevon Moehrig-Woodard

(Original Pick – Jackson Carman)

Just as with Pittsburgh, the Jaguars take note of the available tackles and see light in the second round of the NFL Draft. They can then make what might be a slight reach but secure the top safety in the class in Trevon Moehrig-Woodard. He would go nicely with free-agent acquisitions Shaquille Griffin and Rayshawn Jenkins, and last year’s first-round pick C.J. Henderson in the Jags revamped secondary.

26. Cleveland Browns – Gregory Rousseau

(Original Pick – Gregory Rousseau)

This pick was originally made with the idea of getting a bookend for Myles Garrett. Takkarist McKinley isn’t it and Gregory Rousseau had 15.5 sacks and 19.5 tackles for loss for the Miami Hurricanes in 2019 before opting out last season due to COVID concerns. Barring Jadeveon Clowney singing here, this is the pick.

27. Baltimore Ravens – Rashod Bateman

(Original Pick – Rashod Bateman)

Two things are working against this pick that shouldn’t. One is the hole at EDGE with the loss of both Matt Judon and Yannick Ngakoue. The other is the signing of Sammy Watkins to a one-year deal. But both defenders combined for just nine sacks. And Watkins on the perimeter for a year with Marquise Brown, while Rashod Bateman plays the big slot role, would be Lamar Jackson’s dream scenario.

28. New Orleans Saints – Terrace Marshall

(Original Pick – Jaycee Horn)

The Saints miss out on the top cornerback prospects and need an EDGE. But they also need another weapon for this offense with a new quarterback set to emerge between Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill. Why not get one who can play all three spots and that you should have plenty of tape on in Terrace Marshall of LSU.

29. Green Bay Packers – Jalen Mayfield

(Original Pick – Jalen Mayfield)

The Packers have a 37-year-old future Hall of Famer under center and a 22-year-old 2020 first-rounder waiting in the wings. It’s that simple. Jalen Mayfield also has the versatility the Packers like in their lineman, with the ability to play either tackle spot or to slide inside and play guard.

30. Buffalo Bills – Azeez Ojulari

(Original Pick – Najee Harris)

Buffalo has done a solid job adding to their offense. But the pass rush needs some juice behind the aging duo of Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison. Azeez Ojulari had 12.5 sacks for the Bulldogs last season and would make a nice compliment for A.J. Epenesa, should he come around.

31. Kansas City Chiefs – Dillon Radunz

(Original Pick – Wyatt Davia)

We stick with the o-line for the Chiefs in our mock  NFL Draft (2.0) but, following free agency, they need more help on the outside. With the names still on the board, they may opt to trade down a couple of slots, but Dillon Radunz has the potential to be a franchise left tackle but he might need some work. What better place than with Andy Reid who took Eric Fisher first-overall back in 2013.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Christian Barmore

(Original Pick – Christian Barmore)

The Super Bowl Champion Bucs have pulled off a rarity and have retained all 22 starters from the title run. It remains to be seen if the results will be the same. Christian Barmore can serve as useful insurance behind Vita Vea (who missed 11 regular-season games and the first two rounds of the playoffs) and, even more for Ndamukong Suh who is 34 years old.

NFL Draft Version 2.0

The NFL Draft is always an exciting event and this year should be no different. With a return of the in-person format, we will once again have those emotional moments when prospects hear their names called and walk across the stage.

So much can (and will) change between now and the start of the 2021 NFL Draft. Who knows, we might even have to update this once more before it’s all said and done.

 

Rumors

2021 NFL Free Agency Winners and Losers

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It’s been one week since the legal tampering period unofficially began the 2021 NFL free agency period. The first wave is always action-packed. That’s because there is already a week’s worth of speculation and fans worked into a lather. By the time free agency officially opens, we have a pretty good idea on a number of deals and the frenzy only grows from there.

It must be said, no team wins the Super Bowl in March (or April or any month that isn’t February really). Still, there were clear winners and losers of this first run on the open market. Some earned their designation through shrewd activity while others watched the world pass them by.

Winners and Losers of the First Wave of 2021 NFL Free Agency

We’re about six weeks out from the NFL Draft but free agency in the NFL is in full effect. By the time the new crop of NFL players gets set to hear their name called, we should have a better picture of who’s landing where and why. Please note, “better” does not mean we’ll know for sure, but it’ll be a heck of a lot easier both in predictions and in the aftermath when explaining picks.

Winners

New England Patriots

Let’s just get this out of the way, there is definitely some bias implicit in this ranking. Cam Newton is a personal favorite and the thought of the Patriots actually trying this season with him at the helm is intriguing. Now, this isn’t to say New England won’t be drafting a quarterback early on. But Cam will get a crack with the new pieces Bill Belichick has put around him.

Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne received deals worth a combined $48.5 million which had everyone up in arms. So much so that the additions of tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith (combined $87.5 million, $56.25 guaranteed). Did they pay a premium? Yes. But how soon we forget what Belichick can do with two dynamic pass-catchers running up the seams.

This isn’t just about outside additions, either. New England lost nine of 11 defensive starters to opt-outs last season. Many of those players are returning including one Dont’a Hightower. His presence alone in the middle of that unit should uplift a defense that still ranked seventh in points and 15th in yards. Add in Matthew Judon and the return of Kyle Van Noy and there might be something cooking up in Foxboro.

Washington Football Team

The Washington Football Team has undergone a major facelift, even if it remains to be seen if the inner-workings have taken to the changes. Still, on the field, the Football Team (which they will be called for the foreseeable future) should be much improved after winning the NFC East last season at 7-9. They’ll certainly have a little magic.

Ryan Fitzpatrick joins his ninth team in his 17th season on a one-year $10 million deal that could be worth up to $12 million. Fitzmagic will have a new weapon joining stud wide receiver Terry McLaurin in former Carolina Panthers receiver, Curtis Samuel (3yr/$34.5 million). He’s coming off a season in which he set career-highs in catches and yards. Retaining Brandon Scherff might be the best move of all.

They didn’t ignore their stellar defense either, signing cornerback William Jackson away from the Bengals on a three-year $40.5 million deal with $26 million in guarantees. He’ll join Kendall Fuller and should allow a little more flexibility in coverage than his predecessor Ronald Darby. And with their stellar defensive front, they could once again be the team to beat in the division.

Los Angeles Rams

This is more about quality than quantity, as the Rams only made two outside additions, and one was via trade. But when that trade brings back a franchise quarterback in Matthew Stafford it’s worth noting. Jared Goff got paid a couple of years ago but, ultimately, he was a limiting factor for an offense that ranked 11th in yards and 22nd in points.

Stafford has spent the entirety of his 12-year career toiling away in Detroit. This has to be like hitting the lottery. The Rams offense is just a year removed from ranking second in both points and yards and two years from being the highest-scoring act in the league. His Lions offenses never ranked higher than third in yards or fourth in points and were incredibly imbalanced.

L.A. brought DeSean Jackson home as their other outside addition. He’ll theoretically help to stretch the field but he’s only appeared in eight games total over the past two seasons. Leonard Floyd re-signing is the more impactful decision after his career-high 10.5 sacks for the league’s top-ranked defense.

Losers

Chicago Bears

Not all free agency activity is created equal. Some have criticized the amount of the deals given to Kenny Golladay or Bud Dupree. But both of those moves at least have a shot at paying off big in areas of need for the Giants and Titans, respectively. The Bears big move was signing Andy Dalton to a one-year, $10 million deal that could get up to $13 million.

Some are calling Dalton a competent starter but his interception rate has been over 2.4 in all but two of his 10 seasons. His penchant for turning the ball over (he threw eight interceptions in 11 games with nine starts for the Cowboys last season) and lack of mobility would seem to be the antithesis of what Chicago needs at the position. They franchised Allen Robinson though.

The defense didn’t miss out on the fun as it saw Kyle Fuller released, not traded, and replaced by the oft-injured Desmond Trufant. Mario Edwards returns and they add Jeremiah Attaochu as nice depth pieces. But, after all the build-up over a Russell Wilson trade, this was a big letdown.

Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore had one job. One. That was to get Lamar Jackson a number one wide receiver. They can be excused for not retaining Matt Judon and all of his six sacks. The money paid to Kevin Zeitler is fine; they missed Marshal Yanda last season. But not addressing the wide receiver room in free agency is borderline criminal.

They went after JuJu Smith-Schuster but he took less to stay put. Yes, this draft class is deep at receiver but the position usually takes time to develop. Golladay would have been  perfect fits for this group with Marquise Brown on the outside and Mark Andrews down the seams. But even some of the lesser names like Marvin Jones or Corey Davis would have been nice additions.

Baltimore is also in danger of losing Orlando Brown due to a contract dispute. This is shaping up as a regressive offseason for the Ravens. Maybe they add T.Y. Hilton, who would be nice in this offense, but they’d still need a big body on the outside. And this says nothing of their waning pass-rush.

Best and Worst of 2021 NFL Free Agency

This is just the first wave of free agency and we still have the 2021 NFL Draft yet to come. So we’ll check back in to see where things stand then. But these are the teams that have had the best and worst free agency periods.

Rumors

Week 16 Waiver Wire: Bring It On Home

We are going to get you the fantasy fill-ins that will bring home the ship. That means we are streamlining the Week 16 waiver wire. One. More. Win. That’s all that stands between you and roughly 10 months of gloating to your league mates. Unless you are a crazy person, your fantasy championship game is this week.

You are one of the two best fantasy managers in your league but, as the great Dale Earnhardt once said, second place is the first loser. One player from each position. Because at this point if you need more than that, you probably need a prayer. Without further ado, let’s go about securing your next championship.

Bringing Home a Championship with the Week 16 Waiver Wire

Marcus Mariota

Quarterback

Las Vegas Raiders

When Derek Carr pulled up and ducked out of bounds on his scramble the worst immediately came to mind. Fortunately, he suffered one of the lesser forms of non-contact injury; coming away with a groin pull. That will thrust Marcus Mariota under center for his first start since Week 6 of last season. He was Week 15’s QB8, going 17/28 for 226 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. More intriguing, however, he ran nine times for 88 yards and another score.

Mariota gets a tough draw in Week 16, though. The Miami Dolphins are third in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. And while they’ve had some impressive wins, none compare to their loss to the Chiefs where they forced Patrick Mahomes into three interceptions. Mariota has a knack for turning the ball over, as we saw this past week. But that is more of a problem in real-life football than fantasy.

Tony Pollard

Running Back

Dallas Cowboys

Tony Pollard has teased us with his talent before; he has three games with double-digit fantasy points and three total touchdowns this season. He had a couple of games crossing the century-mark last season too. So his 12-carry, 69-yard, two-touchdown performance shouldn’t be all that surprising. Opportunity is king, especially for running backs. With Ezekiel Elliott missing Week 15’s contest, Pollard took advantage of his, adding 63 yards on six grabs to boot.

Pollard, Week 15’s RB1, is partially at the mercy of Elliott’s health (though both would still see the field) but he will see the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16. They’re 23rd in rushing defense, have allowed 19 rushing touchdowns, and are giving up the 13th-most fantasy points to backs. The concern is that most of the production Philly gives up is on the ground where Pollard and Elliott are more likely to split the work.

Russell Gage

Wide Receiver

Atlanta Falcons

The last time Russell Gage was mentioned in this space it was in reference to teammate Olamide Zaccheaus back in Week 12. Well, since Week 13, Gage has been the WR14 in PPR formats. He’s caught 14 passes for 201 yards and two touchdowns while tossing a 38-yard score as well. He’s gotten 25 targets over this span so he hasn’t been terribly efficient. But the volume has more than made up for it.

The rub? Gage and the Atlanta Falcons draw the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 16. K.C. is fourth in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. That stat is a bit misleading, though. Since their bye week, the Chiefs have faced just one opponent, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, that boasts a receiving corps on par with that of Atlanta. Even if he remains as inefficient as usual, this seems like a good spot for the volume to maintain.

Dawson Knox

Tight End

Buffalo Bills

All season long we have been pounding the mantra that a viable fantasy tight end is one that has a fighting chance at falling into the end zone. It’s a saying that’s brought us Logan Thomas and Robert Tonyan. This week it brings Dawson Knox of the Buffalo Bills. Knox was Week 15’s TE11 and is the TE10 over the last month, having scored a touchdown in three of his last four outings.

You already know Knox is, at best, fourth in the pecking order. But, ya know, tight end is a wasteland. The tougher pill to swallow is the Bills take on the New England Patriots in Week 16. New England is notoriously tough on tight ends and is ranked third in fantasy points allowed to the position in 2020. The hope is with so much of the defense’s attention needing to go to the talented wideouts, Knox finds his way to his fourth touchdown in five games. All fantasy ranking information courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

Rumors

Week 15 Primetime Moneymakers: An AFL Throwback

Entering Week 15 we must remember that every NFL season is full of “flukey” moments, sure. But this year has stood out for its wackiness. From the lack of a training camp and then preseason to the expansion of rosters and rescheduling of games. Nothing is as it usually is in the NFL and that has made picking games especially difficult. We had no baseline and just when we started to get a handle on things, coaching staffs across the league have made their typical adjustments. We just have to get back one step ahead.

If you listen closely, you can hear the fantasy gods stomping a mudhole in our ticket from last week. 0-3 is obviously as bad as gets but to have the Browns blow it for us in the fashion they did was just brutal. So much so that many sportsbooks refunded bets or gave site credit to the many bettors who almost had it. Nonetheless, there is still money to be won and if anybody is going to win it, it should be us. Fingers crossed, sheesh!

A Classic AFL Clash Leads Week 15 Primetime Moneymakers

Los Angeles Chargers (4-9) at Las Vegas (7-6)

Spread: Raiders -3

O/U: 53

It’s been an interesting season for the Los Angeles Chargers (6-7 ATS). They’ve had seven games decided by one score (eight points or less). They’ve only won two of those games. Such is life with a rookie quarterback as Justin Herbert has thrown an interception in all but three of his starts. And if it weren’t for a late field goal against the implosion specialist Atlanta Falcons they would be in the midst of another three-game skid. It was much needed after they were shutout 45-0 by the New England Patriots at home a couple of weeks ago.

The Las Vegas Raiders (7-6 ATS) are having a successful inaugural season in Sin City. But they’ve gone 1-3 over the last month with a 46-3 loss on the road to the Atlanta Falcons sticking out. Their lone win was a 31-28 edging of the winless New York Jets. Kansas City bottled up Josh Jacobs who hurt his ankle the following week against Atlanta and the running game has subsequently failed to hit the 100-yard mark in a month. Rushing stats are usually an indicator of winning. For the Raiders it the other way around. If they won it’s likely because they ran.

Neither of these teams has been a safe bet these last four weeks. L.A. hadn’t covered since Week 3 before last week. Vegas hasn’t covered since Nov 22. The specter of a possible coaching change for the Chargers can manifest in any number of ways, such as their late-game rally in Week 14. Las Vegas won this matchup last time thanks to an overturned touchdown call. It’s hard to sweep an opponent but taking the Raiders (minus the points) still feels like the smart call given the Chargers propensity for late-game collapses. Also going over here just because.

Cleveland Browns (9-4) at New York Giants (5-8)

Spread: Giants +4.5

O/U: 45

Even with all the hype they received in the preseason, this matchup looked like a snoozer in the preseason. Now, the Cleveland Browns (5-8 ATS) are in a position to make the playoffs for the first time since 2002. Their harrowing defeat at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens last Monday night snapped a four-game winning streak. That streak included a 41-35 manhandling of the Tennessee Titans. Cleveland is third in the NFL in rushing and 25th in passing, but Baker Mayfield has completed over 66 percent of his passes for 935 yards with eight touchdowns to just one interception over the last three weeks.

The New York Giants (8-5 ATS) had a four-game winning streak ended last week too. Theirs was a 26-7 drubbing at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals but was due in no small part to quarterback Daniel Jones trying to play on a bad hamstring. That means Colt McCoy, who got the start and a win in Week 13, could be back under center. Still, their victory and defensive dominance over the Seattle Seahawks highlighted what has been a tremendous mid-season turnaround after they started the season 1-4.

Back-to-back big games are usually a recipe for a letdown the following week. Especially against a battered opponent. But the way the game ended last week can’t sit well with the Browns. It’s hard to see any way they let this team beat them. It has also been a safer bet to take the Giants to cover. But we cannot ignore Jones’ injury and what it does in a spot where New York would be an underdog regardless. Browns laying the points it is as the Giants have covered a spread of fewer than five points just once. We are also riding the under, but only if Jones sits.

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-10-1)

Spread: Bengals +13

O/U: 40.5

For weeks many talking heads have been pointing out the fluke nature of the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5 ATS) record. Over the last two weeks, the rest of us have seen that all bear out. Dropping back-to-back games is bad enough. But one of those came against a team from the feeble NFC East at Heinz Field. Last week’s loss to the Bills is more understandable except for Ben Roethlisberger and the offense’s struggles. Pittsburgh is still first in defense DVOA but they are dragging along the 20th-ranked offense. Perhaps they try to get the ground game going this week.

If we are being completely honest, this is the season the Cincinnati Bengals (7-6 ATS) needed as a franchise. Despite the season-ending knee injury, they appear to have their franchise quarterback in Joe Burrow. Now, they’ll be able to keep putting top-tier talent around him thanks to having a putrid record. Cincinnati is 31st in total DVOA (30th in offense, 29th in defense) and 30th in scoring offense. They are 22nd in scoring defense, though, for whatever that’s worth. This one could get ugly and that would be totally acceptable.

They should bring relegation to the NFL should Pittsburgh lose this game. Beating up on weak teams then losing to the sneakily competitive Washington Football team is one thing. A loss to these Bengals would be catastrophic. Pittsburgh needs to get their offense back in order and this looks like a get-right spot. But 13 points is a big number. The Steelers haven’t had, let alone covered, a spread that large this season while the Bengals have lost by double-digits six times this year. Just two of those were by more than 12 points. Pittsburgh will win but by how much? The under might be the safest play.

All line information courtesy of Covers.com

Rumors

Week 15 Waiver Wire: MMMBop…

Just two more weeks left for most of us entering Week 15. Hopefully, you were able to advance to the next round of your league’s fantasy football playoffs. If so, you’re likely just one win away from the championship that you have fought all season for. Nothing would be worse than to come all this way just to lose because you missed out on the savviest pick-ups available on the waiver wire.

You’re here so that doesn’t happen. And even though we are so late in the season there is still value to be had out there. One simply needs to know where to look. This week’s wire features an old dog learning new tricks, a rookie former-Raider, and an out-of-nowhere wide receiver. Now, let’s get you through this week and set up to bring home that coveted trophy.

Chad Hansen and Lynn Bowden Headline Week 15 Waiver Wire

Quarterback

Nick Mullens

San Francisco 49ers

This move is not for the faint of heart.There’s exists the chance of an in-game quarterback change. That’s because Nick Mullens is the QB30 on the season, in part because he’s only started seven games. He was the QB26 in Week 14 and has thrown at least one pick in all but two games he’s played this season, including multiple picks in three contests, with three fumbles to boot.

But just two weeks ago Mullens threw three touchdowns against the Buffalo Bills. He’s also thrown at least one touchdown in all but two games. He also gets the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15. They were allowing 34 points per game the three weeks prior to shutting down the battered Cincinnati Bengals. On the year, Dallas is 32nd in scoring defense. So even though San Francisco is just 20th in scoring offense (one slot above Dallas), they should still be able to put up points on a defense ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Baker Mayfield

Cleveland Browns

What a year the Cleveland Browns are having and Baker Mayfield is right in the thick of it. The QB20 on the season, Mayfield is coming off of back-to-back weekly finishes. Just a week removed from his QB4 performance against the Tennessee Titans, he was the QB2 for his work in a losing effort on Monday Night Football.

This isn’t a play for Week 15. Mayfield’s Browns head to New York to take on the Giants who will likely be without Daniel Jones. That means, in addition to facing a defense that ranks just 17th against the pass but ninth in scoring doesn’t shape up to be a big one for Mayfield. Instead, look to Week 16 against New York’s other team, the Jets, for your spot. They’re allowing the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and are tied for second-most passing touchdowns allowed.

Running Back

Jeff Wilson

San Francisco 49ers

Starting another position in the Bay, we turn to the 49ers backfield and Jeff Wilson. He’s actually been on several waiver wire lists in recent weeks with all of the backs in San Fran missing time at one point or another. Wilson got his first real crack in Week 3 against the Giants. He took 12 carries for a whopping 15 yards but added 54 yards on three catches. What allowed him to finish that week as the RB10 were the two touchdowns, one through the air and one on the ground.

He’s only had one other useful week, that coming in Week 7 when he ran for 112 yards on 17 carries and had three rushing touchdowns against the New England Patriots. In Week 15, he draws a defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs. The 9ers system is legendary for backs, but keep in mind that Dallas is one of three teams that has yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season.

Handcuffs

Just as with every recent installment, this is your weekly reminder that if you have a stud running back and that back has a clear, defined understudy, roster said understudy. We have seen all year the value of having the handcuff to some of the top backs. Mike Davis has been a fixture in lineups most of the season while we are getting more clarity of late in Baltimore and Los Angeles. This is also useful if you have the space on your bench, though it is less useful with just two weeks left in the majority of fantasy seasons.

Wide Receivers

Chad Hansen

Houston Texans

The story of Chad Hansen is one perseverance. The former fourth-round pick of the Jets bounced around the league for two years despite showing some promise as a rookie just to land in the perfect showcase situation. The Houston Texans were without Will Fuller (suspension) and Brandin Cooks (injury) on Sunday and Hansen caught seven balls for 56 yards against a stingy Chicago Bears secondary. That was his (relatively disappointing) encore to his five grab, 101-yard performance from a week earlier.

The 6-foot-2 Hansen is in a terrific spot. Fuller is done for the season and with the oft-injured Cooks dealing with multiple ailments, Hansen could stick through the end of the season. Keke Coutee is still around, and productive. But he is more of a deep-threat and player to get the ball to in space. Hansen is the big-bodied security blanket, an aspect of DeAndre Hopkins’ game that may have been underappreciated by former management.

Lynn Bowden

Miami Dolphins

Another chance to take advantage of dual eligibility! Rookie Lynn Bowden caught seven of nine passes thrown his way for 82 yards and even took a handoff, though that only netted two yards. That matters because Bowden is eligible as both a wide receiver and a running back in ESPN leagues. Everyone remembers the hubbub around Taysom Hill in his first start, some will remember how they avoided the issue entirely with Kendall Hinton. This though, being much more like Ty Montgomery a couple of years ago, is much more conventional.

Still, Miami takes on the New England Patriots in Week 15 with Bowden as one of the few healthy options for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki are both in danger of missing this contest (as is Jakeem Grant) which could open the door for the electric Bowden. New England is 28th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. There could be plenty of volume to offset any inefficiency though and that makes this intriguing. Well, that and the dual eligibility.

Tight End

Dan Arnold

Arizona Cardinals

Remember how our motto for tight ends is “chance at falling in the end zone”? Good because Dan Arnold has three of them over the last two weeks. He’s the TE6 over that span with only four catches and 88 yards, just to give you an idea of the state of the position. He’s surprisingly the TE22 on the year, further evidence of the wasteland that is the tight end position.

Not only is Arnold hot and playing for an offense that has run the fourth-most plays (opportunity is king), but he draws the Eagles in Week 15. They are 24th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends and have allowed a tight end to catch a touchdown in each of the last two games. All of this bodes well given Arnold is, at best, fifth in the pecking order.

All rankings courtesy of FantasyPros.com

Rumors

Week 14 Primetime Monemakers: Lights, Cam-era, Action

Don’t look now, or quote us on this, but it appears we are back to a regular schedule in Week 14 in the NFL. We’re talking complete with Thursday Night Football and all. Just a week after having two games played at non-traditional times due to positive COVID tests with the Baltimore Ravens delaying their matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers from Thanksgiving night to the following Wednesday. Baltimore was the big mover. Others had positives along the way too though. It’s a position we saw the Tennessee Titans in earlier in the year, which also impacted Pittsburgh.

Last week was solid as we went 2-1. We ended up leaving the Baltimore-Dallas game alone. That was due to the uncertainty up until kickoff when they still had Dez Bryant test positive. In fact, the only thing that kept it from being great was the Washington Football Team upsetting the Pittsburgh Steelers. Our record sits at (an unacceptable) 11-15 even with the good week. But last week was just the start of our winning streak to close out the year. As always, there’s money to be made. If anyone is going to make it, it might as well be us.

Pats @ Rams Leads Week 14’s Primetime Moneymakers

New England Patriots (6-6) at Los Angeles Rams (8-4)

Spread: Rams -4.5

O/U: 44

Quiet as kept, the New England Patriots (6-6 ATS) have won two in a row and four of their last five. Cam Newton, averaging less than 200 passing yards per game, has cleaned up his act of late. He’s still well under 200 yards per and has thrown three touchdowns and just two interceptions. Major improvement after he threw seven interceptions but just two touchdowns over his first six games. His offense is 23rd in DVOA, per Football Outsiders. But it’s gone from averaging just over 19 points per game to more than 27 PPG in that same span. The defense, also 23rd in DVOA, has made a similarly positive switch. It’s gone from allowing 23 PPG to 17 PPG (the shutout helped).

Not to be outdone, the Los Angeles Rams (7-5 ATS) have won three of four since their bye. They’ve beaten Seattle, Tampa Bay, and Arizona in that span but did drop one to San Francisco. Still, they’re fourth in offense DVOA and fifth in defense DVOA. They’ve been mediocre scoring points, ranking just 17th despite them being third in yards. But their defense has been stingy, ranking fifth in points and second in yards allowed. Jared Goff has completed better than 73 percent of his passes. That’s a stretch of accuracy only outdone by his performance from Weeks 2 to 5. But he has thrown four touchdowns to four interceptions and has lost two fumbles in that time.

Both of these teams are 3-1 ATS the last four weeks, making this more complicated than it should be. They last met in Super Bowl LIII, a game the Patriots won 13-3. This one shapes up as another defensive showdown so the under is probably the most appealing play. The Rams are 4-1 at home but their (small) record against the Patriots doesn’t lend much confidence to backing them straight up. Can you talk yourself into taking the Pats given what we know about both teams over the last month? It’s tough, but take the Pats plus points. They’ve failed to cover a spread less than a touchdown just twice and haven’t lost to L.A. since 2001.

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1) at Buffalo Bills (9-3)

Spread: Bills -2

O/U: 48.5

In a loss that was equal parts surprising and a long time coming, the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-4 ATS) fell to the Washington Football Team in Week 13. As Chase Young and Monte Sweat mused after the game though, Baltimore had exposed some things the week prior. Pittsburgh has also failed to hit the century mark as a team on the ground in six of the last seven games. They’ve failed to crack 50 yards as a team in four of them. That’s a large part of why their offense is 17th in offense DVOA. Their defense is still first in DVOA but they just gave up 273 passing yards to the Football Team, the most they’ve allowed all season.

The Buffalo Bills (7-5 ATS) started 4-0 but went 3-3 over their next six games, including a loss to Arizona right before the bye. They’ve gone 2-0 since returning with wins over the Chargers and 49ers so it’s hard to say if they’ve truly regained their form from earlier in the year. They are 3-2 against teams currently in the playoffs. But their last such win came back in Week 9 at home against the Seahawks, who have gone 2-2 since. Buffalo, is seventh in offense DVOA and 16th in defense DVOA. They’ve been reliant on the passing game, hitting 100 team rushing yards in just five games (90-plus in two others) despite the threat of Josh Allen. Defense is the opposite.

Buffalo is 4-0 ATS the last four weeks while Pittsburgh is in the midst of a 0-2 skid. And while the Steelers still the analytics darling defensively, the Bills passing game certainly passes the eye test. Of course, there is something to be said for your head coach calling you out to to the media for your effort. It’s very possible for the Steelers to come out clicking at a level we haven’t seen for weeks. That puts the over squarely in play in a matchup of top-10 scoring outfits. It’s been mostly unders in Steelers games this year but they haven’t faced many offenses like the Bills. However, the Bills haven’t seen many pass rushes like the Steelers. Pittsburgh plus the points.

Baltimore Ravens (7-5) at Cleveland Browns (9-3)

Spread: Browns +3

O/U: 47

This will be a good test of whether the Baltimore Ravens (6-6 ATS) really turned a corner last week or if they just beat up on a bad team in Dallas. Conventional wisdom might point to the latter being the case as they had lost three straight before that. But they were missing several key players due to injury and COVID issues so maybe the last month is just the side-effect of that. The defense is carrying the Ravens. It ranks seventh in DVOA while the offense ranks just 21st. Baltimore also has just one win against a playoff team all season; against the Colts back in Week 9. 

It’s a new day in Cleveland as the Browns (5-7 ATS) are will have a winning season for the first time since 2007. That’s amazing not only for that reason but also when considering how the talk around the team sounded just a few weeks ago when losses to the Steelers and Raiders had folks talking about the Browns beating up on weak teams. Flash forward and Cleveland’s current four-game streak seemed doomed for the same type of talk before they took the Titans to the woodshed in Week 13. Cleveland is 23rd in total DVOA making them the second-lowest ranked playoff team behind the Giants.

So which team would be beating up on a weaker opponent here? If it was in the preseason the easy answer would be the Ravens are the bully. But the last few weeks they’ve struggled to beat bad or similarly-struggling squads. That doesn’t bode well against a Browns squad that is feeling itself in the run-up to its first playoff appearance in over a decade. Cleveland has the worse record against the number. But a home dog against a questionable opponent seems too good pass on. The difference could be injuries along the defensive front for Baltimore. This game will be decided on the ground. That could also make the under attractive.

All line information courtesy of Covers.com.