If the Seattle Seahawks’ beating the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship did not seal it for Ben Johnson and the Chicago Bears, it at least bolstered the evidence put on display as the New England Patriots beat the Denver Broncos during the AFC Championship Game.
Johnson and the Bears lost to the Rams, learning the very lesson in that game.
However, they got some reinforcement on Championship Sunday as they prepare for the 2026 offseason.
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During the second quarter of Game 1 on Championship Sunday, the Broncos had the ball and a 7-0 lead on the Patriots’ 14-yard line. It was fourth down. They went for it, similar to Johnson’s decision on the Bears’ first possession against the Rams in the Divisional Round.
The Broncos were unsuccessful, again much like the Bears were.
Sports data analyst Ben Baldwin’s “4th down decision bot” noted on X that a successful fourth-down conversion would have left the Broncos’ chances of winning at 67%.
Their inability to pick it up dropped the chances to 58%, while a field goal had a 95% chance of success. The latter option would have given the Broncos a similar split (57% if missed, 66% if successful).
The Broncos lost 10-7.
In Game 2, the Rams passed on a field goal during the fourth quarter to go for a fourth down. LA trailed Seattle 31-27 at the time, so the circumstances are quite different. However, going for the field goal would have facilitated an onside kick opportunity for the Rams.
The Bears recovered an onside kick to defeat the Packers in overtime in Week 16. It paved the way for overtime and, eventually, a victory.
Johnson will ultimately handle situations as he prefers.
Moreover, the Seahawks won because they scored 5 TDs on six scoring drives compared to 3 TDs in the same number of possessions that ended in points. Touchdowns will always outweigh field goals.
At the same time, taking points, particularly early in a game, can significantly alter both teams’ approach. Rewarding players for getting into scoring range is never a bad idea, either.
Weather and personnel will always be the main factors, including the coach.
Still, Johnson and the Bears got two more examples of how taking the points when going for it on fourth down seems like a worthwhile approach with hindsight being what it is. Whether or not they implement such discretion next season is an answer that will have to wait.