Now or later?
That seems to be the only question Chicago Bears general manager Ryan Poles has left to answer about his third-year head coach whose revamped coaching staff and roster has culminated in a 4-5 team.
Yes, the Bears are two games ahead of where they were a season ago through as many games. That does not and cannot matter now. Not with how this team looked versus the previously 2-7 New England Patriots at home in Soldier Field, this season, and really for much of Matt Eberflus’ (and Poles’) tenure.
Bears-Patriots Takeaways: Ryan Poles’ Decision Made Painfully Clear
Caleb Williams Takes Ownership of Bears’ Long-Standing Issue
Caleb Williams took to the podium and shouldered responsibility for not always getting the ball out like he should. But the issue is far deeper than that. Williams has visibly regressed. From his mental clock to what was supposed to be his trademark accuracy, nothing is better than it was in Week 1.
Williams has completed 50.5% of his passes for 468 yards over the last three games after Week 10.
That is a stark contrast from his .740/687/7/1 line over the previous three games and even the two games before that.
The Bears can point to their offensive line shuffle and the impact that has had amid their various injuries. They cannot defend the lack of progress – and, yes, regression – that Williams has shown through nine weeks. Especially not when you factor in how his fellow rookies have fared.
Is it a matter of personnel? Is it the coaches in charge of putting them in a position to succeed?
What the Bears have to hope is that Williams is not the issue. He is still tied for the lead among rookie QBs with 9 touchdown passes.
But Williams leads the league with 37 sacks taken. He is on pace for 68 sacks this season with the “difficult” part of the Bears’ schedule coming up. Jayden Daniels of the Commanders is the closest rookie with 17 sacks absorbed this season.
Commentary that the Bears are repeating their history will continue, especially with the Green Bay Packers up next.
Shane Waldron’s Offense Does Not Work
This season has provided little hope that the current leadership is the proper one to rear Caleb Williams or any other quarterback who might need it for that matter.
Shane Waldron’s offenses have ranked 14th in points and 18th in yards.
However, those numbers got a big boost from the 2022 season when the Seattle Seahawks ranked 9th in points and 13th in yards. The 2021 (16th in points, 20th in yards) and 2023 (17th in points, 21st in yards) seasons were different stories.
This year’s Bears ranked 19th in points and 28th in yards coming into the week.
That drop can be explained by Waldron working with Pro Bowl quarterbacks in Russell Wilson and then Geno Smith in Seattle. These Bears do not have a Pro Bowl quarterback.
They do not even have a veteran QB with second-year former undrafted free agent Tyson Bagent the “old man” in the group. Brett Rypien, their most experienced QB and well-versed in Waldron’s offense, landed with the Minnesota Vikings after the preseason.
Waldron’s ability to teach his offense was lauded during the spring and summer.
Now that the actual regular season has begun, it is clear that his offense is less effective in-game than it is in the classroom or even on the practice field.
DJ Moore went from a career year in 2023 to now tracking toward a career-worst season all within a few months. Same for Cole Kmet and Keenan Allen. Gerald Everett, anyone? None of the Bears’ vaunted veteran pass catchers have thrived.
The good news is that D’Andre Swift and Rome Odunze have flashed.
Flashes are not good enough, though. Not when you also remember that these veteran players entered this season expecting to compete for something. That points to the next red flag.
Matt Eberflus’ Defense Not Changing Games
The Bears got a big win in Week 1 over the Tennessee Titans, a game that has proven to be a harbinger of things to come this season. That game saw the Bears’ defense come away with a game-sealing interception by Jaylon Johnson.
In Week 4, it was safety Jaquan Brisker with a game-ending pick on Matthew Stafford in a win over the Los Angeles Rams.
The defense, Eberflus’ claim to notoriety, has not made those plays since then.
They beat the Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars comfortably after that, taking advantage of lesser opponents. But the defense gave up the game-winning play in Week 8 and was listless in Week 9 before failing to make a game-changing play in Week 10.
Cornerback Tyrique Stevenson was the scapegoat for his mental lapse in Week 8 versus the Washington Commanders.
He is a microcosm of the breakdowns in key moments that have cost the Bears under Eberflus.
The Bears were 2-5 in one-score games in 2023 after going 1-7 in such games in 2022, Eberflus’ first season. They are 1-3 in one-score games in 2024, including that heartbreaking loss to Washington in Week 8 that will be pointed to as the turning point of this season.
Eberflus is now 14-29 in his career as Bears head coach. He has three road wins. None of those wins have come this season, and his team’s offense is back where it was in Year 1.
Ryan Poles’ Decision Clear as Bears Flounder
If the expectations for this Bears team were set too high, fingers can certainly point back to Poles. He decided not only to keep the current head coach in place but also saddled that head coach with a rookie quarterback despite the perceived uncertainty around the regime.
Poles’ attempts to address the Bears’ offensive line – where demoted former starter Nate Davis is the highest-paid player – have been futile.
It is a surprising result for the former offensive lineman, Poles.
Williams has the highest pressure rate among all three rookie QBs to start every game, per Pro Football Focus. He also has the second-highest responsibility rate for the pressure he has faced. But his offensive line has the highest rate among OLs for the three nine-game starters.
There is a good chance Poles gets to hire another head coach. His trade to land the package that ultimately yielded Williams was still hailed as one of the best in recent memory.
The Bears’ roster also instilled a lot of confidence on paper.
Its failings have been on the field and, since a full roster overhaul just as the previous one was completed seems unlikely, the next change is Matt Eberflus. The Bears have already hired and fired both of his first coordinators, albeit for different reasons.
Waldron appears to be on thin ice with Eberflus acknowledging “everything” would be up for evaluation in the upcoming week.
Defensive coordinator Eric Washington evades criticism.
But that is only because his boss – Eberflus – still calls the plays. No matter how Poles evaluates this season and Eberflus’ tenure as a whole, he would be hard-pressed to tout the coach’s ability to navigate turbulence again.
Eventually, Bears players and the fans who root for them every Sunday deserve to see prosperity.